For the second time this decade, we have had three transport secretaries in a year, emphasising how this is a post relating to a long term industry that suffers from short term tenures of ministers. In 2022, it was because of the insane Truss interregnium when Anne-Marie Trevelyan held the post for just seven weeks, and this time we’ve had an election and a very minor and rather odd scandal which did for Lou Haigh. Before looking at the record of the Labour government since the election, it is worth recalling what happened in the dying days of the Tory administration, just to ensure we do not forget how badly the railways were treated by Rishi Sunak’s government
Indeed, the final actions of the flailing and failing Tory government were a neat summary of their attitude to the rail industry. Having identified the fundamental problem of the dysfunctional relationship between Network Rail and the franchises when the system buckled under the May 2018 timetable changes, the Conservative government rightly began to consider ways of restructuring the railways. A review, under the former aviation executive Keith Williams was quickly launched but then it did not actually emerge until three years later, with publicity-seeking transport secretary Grant Shapps having added his name to the final report.
But then Shapps moved to higher things when Boris Johnson was forced out, and the report gathered dust – though at great expense as a huge team of consultants was gathered together to create GBRTT – the Great British Railways Transition Team. With the excuse of Covid, the wheels of Whitehall ground particularly slowly though in fact the pandemic had ended.
The report’s recommendation to set up a new body, Great British Railways, seemed to have been accepted and the transition team was supposed to bring it about. But disputes within the Conservative party, with many MPs sceptical about what they saw as renationalisation and concerned over precisely over how much power it should have, meant that progress was stalled.
Nevertheless, the spending went on with GBRTT racking up costs annually of tens of millions of pounds, mostly on consultants at eye-watering day rates.
In truth, neither the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak who entered Number 10 in October 2022, nor his transport secretary Mark Harper, had any enthusiasm to continue the reform process. Despite the fact that there would have been plenty of time to enact new legislation in the final Parliament of the Tory government, Harper merely announced that there would be a draft bill for reforming the railways but no actual legislation. Already the farcical way that the section of HS2 between Birmingham and Manchester had been scrapped by Sunak in a supposedly crowd pleasing speech to the Tory conference suggested that railways were not a priority for his administration. That was encapsulated by the fact that on the very day which the Transport Select Committee was supposed to produce its report on the draft bill, Sunak knocked on the door of Buckingham Palace to throw in the towel to his dying administration. That showed the disdain with which the whole reform process was considered by senior Tory ministers.
Now we are in a totally different world, but it is a confusing one. That’s because it is unclear exactly how seriously the new government regards the future of the railways. On the one hand, there has been a remarkably speedy introduction of legislation. This rapidity is not only a tribute to the now departed Louise Haigh for getting a controversial bill passed through so quickly, albeit helped by a ridiculous large Parliamentary majority, but a clear indication that there was support from the Cabinet and Number 10. Rail ‘renationalisation’ is perceived by senior Labour ministers as an important expression of how the government can ‘change’ things – which was the key election slogan. Taking the franchises back in house is a visible expression of how Labour is different from their Tory predecessors. As one railway watcher put it to me, ‘it almost seemed like this was emergency legislation brought in during wartime’.
So it is all systems go for the Labour reforms. But is it really? Taking back the franchises is the easy bit. But then what next? For that we need the second piece of legislation which will create Great British Railways along with a new structure for the industry. I accept that we could hardly expect and ‘oven ready’ plan, but there seems a total absence of urgency about this next step. Moreover, where are the speeches from Labour’s top team, Starmer and Reeves, about how the railways will be transformed and how important they are to our economy. I am not sure that either of them have ever given more than a cursory mention to the railways and yet ‘renationalisation’ has been a key part of the agenda. It all seems a bit contradictory to me. If this return to a British Rail type structure – even though we know that much of the old BR cannot be reclaimed – is deemed to be so important that legislation was rushed through to bring it about, what is it going to achieve? How are the railways going to be improved and how will that be measured. All that remains unknown.
I thought it incumbent to end this review of the year on a positive note, given all the negativity in the industry at the moment about poor performance, the loss of the commuter base in the post covid world and the uncertainty over investment generally and on HS2 in particular. So two bits of good news. First, the success of the Elizabeth Line, despite the patchy performance, is a remarkable tribute to the ‘build it and they will come’ line of thinking. The pity is that there is no Crossrail 2 in the offing any time soon, despite the fact that it would have an enormous regenerative effect on a swathe of London and the route has been safeguarded. Second bit of cheer is the reopening of the Northumberland Line, a tribute to the campaigning skills of the local group SENRUG, without whose efforts this would never have happened. It is though dispiriting that it cost nearly £300m to reopen 19 miles of an existing freight line and that is something which Labour ministers should look at in 2025 – ensuring that bringing back railway lines is not prohibitively expensive.
Mystic Wolmar’s shattered crystal ball
The most fun aspect of writing this column, and one which I know readers enjoy, is my annual attempt to make a few accurate predictions about the forthcoming year. Given the rapidity of the news agenda, and the insane politics of the past decade, this has undoubtedly become more difficult, and Mystic has been a bit of a failure, but with a period of stability, at least in the UK, ahead of us, it should be to get a few things right.
Certainly, despite the chaos, Mystic did not have too bad a year. Here’s what he forecast.
- The election will take place in late Autumn and Labour will win by a landslide. Well half a point for the landslide
- Mark Harper will retain his post at transport secretary to the bitter end but Huw Merriman will quit over further proposed cutbacks Again, half a point. The egregious Harper stayed on but Merriman, despite his anger at what happened, remained in post
- No land earmarked for HS2 between Birmingham and Crewe will be sold off in 2024. That was an easy one. One point
- There will be yet more trouble for the driverless car industry affecting plans to introduce them in this country. Well certainly there have been more problems, with various incidents, but plans in this country seem to be still supported by the new government. Half a point
- The ASLEF industrial relations dispute will be resolved by separating out the terms and conditions from the pay rise. Well, yes, but it took the new government to do that.
- QPR, currently 23rd, will not be relegated. Well astonishingly, they stayed up and at the time of writing are a remarkable 19th, after being bottom a month ago.
So a very commendable 4.5 points out of 6, Mystic’s best for years. Watch out for Mystic’s predictions in the next issue.